TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORMS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN

Current
Location: 15.2N/62.0W

Geographic
Reference: 50 miles (80 km) west-southwest of Dominica

Movement: West
at 18 mph

Max Winds: 45
mph

Organizational
Trend: Slowly getting better organized

Forecast
Track Confidence: Below average

Forecast

A recon
plane has confirmed the development of a closed circulation center this
afternoon. The center passed nearly over the island of Dominica earlier this
afternoon. Though the winds near the center were only 10 mph to 20 mph, the
plane did find winds to 45 mph located over 100 miles to the east of the
center. Therefore, Disturbance 23 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Emily.

Emily will
continue moving to the west-northwest over the next few days. Based on forecasters
track, Emily is forecast to move in the general direction of Hispaniola,
arriving on Wednesday night or Thursday. By the weekend, the storm is likely
to be near the northwest Bahamas and South Florida. The chances are
increasing of a direct impact on South Florida. If Emily does not intensify
as forecast, then a track farther to the west would be likely. This would
take the storm into the eastern Gulf of Mexico just to the west of the
Florida Peninsula. The confidence in the forecast track remains below average
due to uncertainty in the intensity forecast.

As for
intensity, forecasters think that Emily will be slow to strengthen as it
tracks across the northeast Caribbean over the next 48 hours. There is only a
slight chance that Emily could become a hurricane in the Caribbean. Some
weakening should occur as the system moves over Haiti and eastern Cuba, but
conditions across the Bahamas will be favorable for strengthening. For now, forecasters
are forecasting the system to be a strong tropical storm when it reaches
south Florida on Saturday. Confidence in the intensity forecast is on the low
side.

Expected
Impacts on Land

Lesser
Antilles: Heavy squalls containing tropical storm force winds are
spreading over the Lesser Antilles now and are expected to last through
tomorrow. 5-10 inches of rainfall are expected. These rains could cause
flooding and mudslides.

U.S./British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: The outermost squalls will move into the
area tomorrow afternoon/evening. Rainfall up to 4-8 inches will be possible,
with much higher amounts possible in the higher elevations of Puerto Rico.
Tropical storm conditions could impact the area Tuesday night into Wednesday,
though forecasters current track does keep the stronger winds south of the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Dominican
Republic (Santo Domingo area): Squalls may reach the area by Wednesday
morning. Rainfall up to 5-10 inches will be possible from Wednesday through
Thursday. Flooding and mudslides are likely.

Turks and
Caicos: Squalls should reach the islands by Thursday afternoon. Rainfall
totals of 4-10 inches will be possible.

Expected
Impacts Offshore

Eastern
Caribbean Sea: Conditions will deteriorate tonight as tonight and
tomorrow as Emily approaches. By Thursday night, the last squalls will exit
the Caribbean waters near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Interests
in the Virgin Islands should continue monitor the progress of this system.
Emily is forecast to produce an increase showers as it moves in the vicinity
of the territory. A flash flood watch maybe issued if showers are heavy and
persistent. Waiting for formal watches and warnings to be issued can be too
late for some individuals depending on where the system develops. The DDM is encouraging
persons to make the necessary preparations if they have not already done so. The
2011 hurricane season is projected to be very active. Please visit the DDM’s
website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe
to the DDM’s notification link.

Disclaimer:The Department of Disaster
Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information
disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional
sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This
information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local
weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held
accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal
evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of
finances, property or life.