LOCATION: 14.6 degrees north, 49.4 degrees west
DISTANCE: ABOUT 1023 MILES EAST SOUTH EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
MOVEMENT: WEST NEAR 20 MPH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 MB
Disturbance/Invest 98L, the system that was behind Tropical Storm Danny has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Erika.
Tropical Storm Erika formed over the central tropical Atlantic and will continue to move briskly west to northwestward over the next 48 hours before the steering subtropical ridge begins to weaken, allowing the system to begin turning northward toward the end of the period.
Erika will move over warmer waters as it tracks northwestward, but vertical wind shear will only allow for modest strengthening over the next 24 hours. Once the system moves north of the Lesser Antilles, wind shear values will decrease and more robust development may become possible.
At 5:00 a.m., the centre of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 14.6 degrees north, longitude 49.4 degrees west or about 1023 miles east-southeast of the BVI. Erika is moving toward the west near 20 miles per hour (mph). A westward to west north-west trend with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected in 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the centre.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.
Expected Impacts on Land
British Virgin Islands: Power outages are possible due to heavy winds. Heavy rain could cause minor flooding.
Residents of the British Virgin Islands are advised to monitor the system as it progresses and keep abreast of updates issued by the Department of Disaster Management.
Visit the DDM website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe for updates, visit our Facebook page at www.facebook.com/bvi.ddm or follow us on Twitter at www.twitter.com/BVIDDM.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.