LOCATION: 16.7 degrees north, 59.5 degrees west
DISTANCE: ABOUT 338 MILES EAST SOUTH EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
MOVEMENT: WEST 17 MPH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 MB
At 8:00 p.m., the centre of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 59.5 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph. A west-north-westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the centre of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, and move near the Virgin Islands on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 primarily to the east of the centre.
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb.
There are conflicting predictions from the different models which created uncertainty regarding Erika’s development. Both reconnaissance planes are currently investigating Erika, and the maximum sustained winds are still likely to be near 45 mph with higher gusts. These winds are confined to heavy squalls to the southeast of the centre. Little change in strength or perhaps some slight weakening could occur during the next 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning is still in effect for the British Virgin Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the Leeward Islands tonight and the British Virgin Islands on Thursday.
Erika is still predicted to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Leeward and the British Virgin Islands. Residents are advised of the possibility of flash flooding in flood prone and low lying areas. Interests in the leeward and British Virgin Islands should continue monitoring the progress of Erika and execute plans to protect life and property.
The marine warning issued by Antigua Meteorological Service for mariners, small craft operators and sea bathers remains in effect.
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Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.