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Current Location: 17.5N/64.0W
Geographic Reference: 135 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Movement: West-northwest at 18 mph
Max Winds: 60 mph gusting to 70 mph
Forecast: Irene is
moving to the west-northwest and this will take the center very near St.
Croix this afternoon and evening. This motion is expected to continue over
the next couple of days. On Tuesday and Wednesday, forecasters think Irene will
slow near the eastern tip of Cuba and turn more to the northwest. This
heading should last through Friday, which will take Irene into South Florida
Thursday evening. It is looking less likely that Irene will cross into the
Gulf of Mexico. There is a bit of uncertainty in the timing of the northwest
turn and for this advisory the forecast confidence remains below average
after Wednesday.
Environmental conditions remain very favorable for further
development. Forecasters have indicated that Irene will exhibit steady
intensification into a hurricane until it interacts with Hispaniola, which
will cause weakening to a tropical storm. Once Irene moves off of Cuba,
conditions are expected to be favorable for re-intensification. Irene could
regain hurricane intensity by the time it makes landfall in South Florida on
Thursday evening. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains low mainly due
to the uncertainties in how much weakening Irene will undergo over
Hispaniola.
Expected Impacts on Land
Leeward Islands: Heavy squalls are expected to last into tomorrow morning,
but with steady improvement east of the Anegada Passage tonight. 4-8 inches
of rain are likely.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Squalls are approaching the islands and are expected to
last through early Monday. 8-12 inches of rain are likely, with higher totals
possible across the elevated areas of Puerto Rico. These rains are likely to
cause flooding and mudslides. Tropical storm force winds are also likely.
Dominican Republic: Squalls are expected to start affecting the area on Monday
morning. Up to 8-12 inches of rain are expected in the Santo Domingo area
through Tuesday morning. These rains will likely cause flooding and
mudslides. Hurricane conditions will be limited to a small area of coast in near
the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic.
Turks and Caicos: Squalls can be expected on Tuesday with 1-3 inches of rain
and isolated totals to 5 inches.
Bahamas: Squalls can be expected on beginning on Wednesday with 2-4
inches of rain and isolated totals to 6 inches.
Jamaica: Squalls will likely affect the area on Tuesday.
Southern Florida Peninsula: Squalls may begin impacting the Keys and the southern
peninsula by early afternoon on Thursday with deteriorating conditions
thereafter. Based on the current track 4-8 inches of rain would be possible
with isolated totals to 10 inches.
The Department
of Disaster Management (DDM) will continue to monitor the weather conditions
and provide updates accordingly. Persons can visit the DDM’s website at
www.bviddm.com and subscribe to their notification link to receive further
updates.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management
(DDM) is not an official meteorological office. The information disseminated
by the department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or
contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be
used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no
means can the DDM or the BVI government be held accountable by anyone who
uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of
any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.
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