August 30, 20111157Views

Current Location: 12.3N/33.4W

Geographic Reference: 630 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands

Movement: West-northwest at 16 mph

Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph

Forecast Track Confidence: Average,
due to reasonable model agreement.



Depression Twelve has become Tropical Storm
Katia. Environmental conditions favor additional intensification as the
easterly wind shear appears to be decreasing. Forecasters latest forecast
follows the intensity guidance and brings Katia to hurricane intensity
tomorrow afternoon and indicates a possible category 3 hurricane on Saturday
or Sunday. The confidence in the intensity forecast remains average.

The current west-northwest track is
expected to continue for the next several days. On this track, Katia is
expected to be located a little to the north and east of the northern Leeward
Islands in about 5 days. However, any shift to the south could bring Katia
close to the northern Leeward Islands.

Expected Impacts on Land

High waves could affect the north facing
beaches of the northern Leeward Islands in about 5 days.


At present Katia is no threat to the Virgin
Islands however, as the Tropical Storm is still hundreds of miles east of the
territory, the uncertainty of  its
impact on the VI is very high therefore, Residents should continue to monitor
the system as progresses further west.

The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) will continue to monitor the
weather conditions and provide updates accordingly. Persons can visit the DDM’s
website at and subscribe to their notification link to receive
further updates.

Disclaimer:The Department of Disaster
Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information
disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional
sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This
information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local
weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held
accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal
evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of
finances, property or life.