August 30, 20121357Views

Current Position: 14.4N/45.3W

Geographic Reference: 1060 miles
East of St. Lucia

Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 mph
gusting to 55 mph

Movement: West at 21

Tropical Storm Winds: Extend out to 45miles from the

Organizational Trend: Increasing

Current Hurricane Severity
2 (1 size / 1 intensity)

Maximum Predicted Hurricane
Severity Index: 
16 (8 size / 8 intensity)

Forecast Confidence: Average

Changes From Previous Forecast

The only change forecasters made was to increase
Leslie to hurricane strength by the time it passes north of the eastern
Caribbean on Sunday.


Tropical Storm Leslie continues
moving rapidly westward this evening. All model guidance remains in very good
agreement that Leslie will begin a turn to the north east of the Caribbean
between 55W and 60W, and forecasters are in in agreement with this. Forecasters
expect Leslie’s forward speed may slow considerably after it turns northward on
Sunday, possibly moving very slowly as it passes southeast of Bermuda early
next week. It is still unclear whether Leslie will have any impact on
Newfoundland late next week.

There are indications that the upper-air environment in Leslie’s
path may be quite favorable for strengthening, though recent experience with
storms in the same region as Leslie make forecasters a bit hesitant to go too
high with Leslie’s winds until they see more evidence of rapid strengthening. Forecasters
take Leslie to a Category 2 hurricane in about 72-96 hours. At present TS
Leslie is not a threat to the Virgin Islands however, they system has not
passed the territory and the forecasts are subject change as the system
progresses further west.

The Department of Disaster Management will continue to monitor the
system and provide updates when necessary. Please visit the DDM’s website at and subscribe for future updates.

Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.