Tropical
Storm Ophelia is centered near 13.4N/47.6 W, or about 785 miles east of
Barbados. Maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph with higher wind gusts of
up to 80mph. Movement is to the west at 14 mph. Ophelia is forecast to move just
north of the northern Leeward Islands by this weekend.
Forecasters
have said that Ophelia is consisted of a low cloud swirl well southwest of the
intense showers and storms. This is due to mid to upper level wind shear
undercutting a fairly impressive outflow pattern. Since this shear is likely to
continue, gradual weakening is likely through the next 2-3 days. Thereafter,
models indicate that there may be some intensification.
Visible
satellite imagery indicates that Ophelia is a bit south of the previous track.
However, the overall reasoning remains unchanged. A trough to the northwest
should begin to impart a gradual north turn over the next several days. This
would take the system a little north of the Leeward Islands. However, it is
possible that Ophelia could move a bit farther west if it weakens more than
forecast during the next couple of days.
Squalls are
likely to impact the Leeward Islands from Saturday evening and could last into
Monday afternoon after the passage of the center of circulation. The outermost
squalls are expected to impact the Northeast Caribbean Sea by early Sunday
morning, bringing wind gusts to tropical storm force and rough seas. Almost all
of the squalls will occur behind the passage of the
center.
All
residents should remain in a high state of readiness as they continue to monitor
the progress of Ophelia and make necessary preparations. The Department of
Disaster Management will continue to monitor the storm and provide updates when
necessary. Please visit the Department of Disaster Management’s website at
www.bviddm.com and subscribe to the notification
link.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management
(DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by
the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or
contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be
used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no
means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses
this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any
decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or
life.
