Current Location: 16.1N 70W
Geographic Reference: 165 of the
Dominican Republic
Movement: W at 15
mph
Max Winds: 45 mph
gusting to 60 mph
Organizational Trend: Increasing
slowly
Forecast Confidence: Average
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 4 (2 size
/ 2 intensity)
Peak Forecast Hurricane Severity
Index: 14 (6 size / 8 intensity)
Previous Forecast
5:00AM – Forecasters shifted the track slightly more to the west for the
segment in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This reflects their thinking of a
landfall late Tuesday or early Wednesday near the Florida/Alabama border.
Forecast
Isaac is moving to the West. On
this track, it will pass near the southwestern coast of Haiti this afternoon
and evening. Saturday through early Sunday Isaac will track across eastern and
central Cuba. Forecasters expect Isaac to gradually turn to the northwest,
bringing it near the Florida Keys and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
Sunday night. It is possible it could be a hurricane before reaching the
Florida Keys. Forecasts think that the most likely landfall point would be near
the Florida/Alabama border. The most recent model runs suggest that the
westward shift in the tracks may have ended. However, there is still a chance
that additional westward adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts.
Isaac remains disorganized this morning. The center is on the
north edge of the deep thunderstorms. Isaac is unlikely to become a hurricane
in the Caribbean. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the 25
mph wind field extends out from the center 300 to 400 miles on the north side.
This indicates a large circulation, but not an intense one at this time. Some
consolidation and strengthening is forecast before the center reaches the coast
of southwestern Haiti and Cuba. Interaction with Cuba will hamper
strengthening. However, conditions are expected to be more favorable in the
Florida Straits and Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters think Isaac could be a Category
1 hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and a Category 2
hurricane in the northeastern to north-central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Warm
water in the Gulf and low to moderate wind shear will allow for strengthening
to occur. Therefore, forecasters cannot rule out the chance that Isaac could
become a Category 3.
Expected Impacts on Land
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Some
additional rain bands could move through over the next 12 hours with wind gusts
up to 50 mph.
Dominican Republic: Squalls
will continue through today. Heavy rainfall, flooding, and mudslides are likely
throughout the island of Hispaniola. Tropical storm force winds are possible
through today.
Jamaica: Squalls
could reach the island by late this morning. The worst conditions would be
tonight through midday Saturday.
Florida: Squalls
are forecast to begin spreading over the state early Sunday morning and spread
northward in tandem with Isaac.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Central Caribbean: Over the
next 24 hours, tropical storm conditions are likely.
Eastern Gulf of Mexico: Sunday
night, the first squalls will move into the southeastern Gulf and spread
northward.
North-Central Gulf of Mexico
Lease Areas: Squalls could be reaching the deepwater areas off southeast
Louisiana as early as Monday morning. Our forecast has the center of Isaac
passing about 90 miles east of Mississippi Canyon midday Tuesday.
TROPICAL STORM JOYCE
Current Location: 16.8N/44.1W
Geographical Reference: 1495 miles
SE of Bermuda
Maximum Sustained Wind: 35 mph
gusting to 45 mph
Movement: WNW at 18
mph
Organizational Trend: Weakening
Forecast Confidence: Average
Previous Forecast
Joyce has weakened to a tropical
depression but may regain tropical storm strength in 24-48 hrs.
Forecast
Satellite imagery indicates that
Joyce has weakened to a tropical depression, and the cyclone has been
downgraded to a depression by the National Hurricane Center. However,
conditions aloft may become favorable for some strengthening should Joyce’s
circulation remain intact over the next 24 to 48 hours. Our forecast takes
Joyce generally toward Bermuda, and then it accelerates out to sea to the
northeast.
Joyce will not be threatening the Caribbean however the system
will be monitored until it has dissipated.
LOCAL WEATHER BULLETIN
Synopsis: TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING
BEHIND, HIGH AND MEDIUM LEVEL CLOUDS.
Wx: TODAY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. TONIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
Winds: ESE 10-16KTS.
Seas: ROUGH SWELLS 2.1
TO 3.1 M OR 7 TO 10 FT. A WARNING
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS AND SEA BATHERS, AGAINST HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS , ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ISLANDS OR IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AREA,..
Barometric Pressure: BELOW NORMAL
Sunset today: 6:39 pm.
Sunrise
tomorrow: 5:54
am.
The Department of Disaster
Management will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates when
necessary. Please visit the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe for
future updates.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.
