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TROPICAL UPDATE FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS

by Andrew Jackson
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Katia, located over the eastern subtropical 
Atlantic, and has issued the last advisory on the remnants of Gert, 
located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure has formed 
from the tropical wave centered about 700 miles west-southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands. The low-level circulation has become better 
defined since yesterday, with increasing organization in the shower 
and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be conducive for further development, and this system is expected to 
become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in a day or two. 
Additional strengthening is likely late this week while the system 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the 
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. For 
additional information on this system, including gale warnings, see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A strong tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to move off 
the African coast in a couple of days. Environmental conditions 
should support some slow development, and a tropical depression 
could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic around the latter 
part of the week or the weekend while the wave moves to the 
west-northwest at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Northeastern Atlantic (ex-Franklin):
Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin is located several hundred miles 
north of the Azores and is forecast to move quickly southeastward 
towards warmer waters east of Azores. This system could acquire some 
subtropical or tropical characteristics late this week or this 
weekend while it moves erratically between the Azores and Portugal. 
For additional information on this system, including gale warnings, 
see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

𝘿𝙞𝙨𝙘𝙡𝙖𝙞𝙢𝙚𝙧: 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝘿𝙚𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙤𝙛 𝘿𝙞𝙨𝙖𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙈𝙖𝙣𝙖𝙜𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 (𝘿𝘿𝙈) 𝙞𝙨 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙖𝙣 𝙤𝙛𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙈𝙚𝙩𝙚𝙤𝙧𝙤𝙡𝙤𝙜𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡 𝙊𝙛𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙚. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙗𝙮 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝘿𝙚𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝙜𝙖𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙙 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙖 𝙣𝙪𝙢𝙗𝙚𝙧 𝙤𝙛 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙛𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙖𝙡 𝙨𝙤𝙪𝙧𝙘𝙚𝙨 𝙪𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙤𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙗𝙮 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝘿𝘿𝙈 𝙩𝙤 𝙞𝙢𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙚 𝙨𝙪𝙘𝙝 𝙞𝙣𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣. 𝙏𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙞𝙣𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙞𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙗𝙚 𝙪𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙖𝙨 𝙖 𝙜𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚 𝙗𝙮 𝙖𝙣𝙮𝙤𝙣𝙚 𝙬𝙝𝙤 𝙝𝙖𝙨 𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙞𝙣 𝙡𝙤𝙘𝙖𝙡 𝙬𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨. 𝘽𝙮 𝙣𝙤 𝙢𝙚𝙖𝙣𝙨 𝙘𝙖𝙣 𝘿𝘿𝙈 𝙤𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝘽𝙑𝙄 𝙂𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙗𝙚 𝙝𝙚𝙡𝙙 𝙖𝙘𝙘𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙗𝙮 𝙖𝙣𝙮𝙤𝙣𝙚 𝙬𝙝𝙤 𝙪𝙨𝙚𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙞𝙣𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙥𝙧𝙞𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙡𝙚𝙜𝙖𝙡 𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙤𝙧 𝙞𝙣 𝙟𝙪𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙤𝙛 𝙖𝙣𝙮 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙬𝙝𝙞𝙘𝙝 𝙢𝙖𝙮 𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙪𝙡𝙩 𝙞𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙡𝙤𝙨𝙨 𝙤𝙛 𝙛𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙨, 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙩𝙮 𝙤𝙧 𝙡𝙞𝙛𝙚.


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