A tropical wave will move across the islands this afternoon into tonight, resulting in unstable weather which could lead to showers and thunderstorms developing. The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services in its latest forecast said as the wave moves closer, there is the potential for heavier showers with thunderstorms that may produce lightning.
Sea conditions are expected to be moderate to rough with wave heights of up to 1.8 to 2.4 metres or 6 to 8 feet, occasionally reaching 3 metres or 10 feet. Therefore, a small craft advisory remains in effect.
Winds are easterly at 10 to 17 knots with strong gusts of up to 30 knots possible, mainly during showers.
Disturbance 1 is located near latitude 14 degrees north, longitude 46 degrees west, or about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It is moving westward at about 20 miles per hour (mph). The low-level circulation has become better defined in the last 24 hours. It is producing some disorganised squalls. The environment is not favourable for intensification due to dry Saharan air. The disturbance will reach the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Model guidance suggests that this system will find a more favourable environment for development once it reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea late this weekend and early next week. The chance of development in the next 7 days is 40 percent.
Disturbance 2 is located near latitude 14 degrees north, longitude 34 degrees west, or about 600 miles to the west of the Cape Verde Islands. It is moving westward at about 20 mph. This system has also become better defined in the last 24 hours. It is generating some showers and thunderstorms, especially west of the centre. This system is also being affected by dry Saharan air. Over the next few days, it will move to the west-northwest, passing north of the islands. The latest model guidance indicates less development than in previous days. The chance of development in the next 7 days is 30 percent.
Disturbance 3 is located over the west coast of Africa. The tropical wave is producing some disorganised showers as it moves westward. The environment is expected to remain dry, and not favourable for intensification for the next 3-4 days. However, model guidance suggests that in about 5 days it will move above latitude 20 degrees north over the central Atlantic. Conditions north of latitude 20 degrees north should be more favourable for development. At this time, it seems that it will not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles. The chance of development in the next 7 days is 40 percent.
The DDM will continue to monitor these weather systems and provide updates when they become available.
Please continue to monitor local media stations, DDM’s website (bviddm.com) and Facebook at BVIDDM for regular updates.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.