Current Position: 11.8N and
53.6W
Geographic Reference: 405 miles
east of Barbados
Forecasters Estimated Max. Winds: 45 mph
gusting to 60 mph
Latest NHC Estimated Max Wind and
Gusts (at 2PM CDT): 45 mph gusting to 60 mph
Movement: West-northwest
at 25 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 (1 size
/2 intensity)
Max. Predicted Hurricane Severity
Index: 5 (2 size /3 intensity)
Max. Predicted Radius of Tropical
Storm Force Winds: 80 miles
Organizational Trend: Slowly
increasing
Forecast Confidence: Average
Changes From Our Previous
Forecast
While forecasters think wind
shear will be an inhibiting factor in the Caribbean Sea, it may not be enough
to prevent Chantal from strengthening modestly. Forecasters think it could
reach peak intensity near 65 mph before reaching Hispaniola, which is about 15
mph stronger than the previous update. The only other major change that
revolves around their thinking is Chantal’s track beyond the next five days.
Since this morning, the model guidance has trended westward in the 5-7 day time
period. Thus, forecasters think Chantal could reach Florida in about 6 days.
Forecast
Chantal is now moving to the
west-northwest at a brisk pace. On this path, the center should reach the
Lesser Antilles around midday Tuesday. Chantal should gradually decelerate in
the Caribbean Sea on its way to Hispaniola. On a west-northwest path, Chantal
should reach the Dominican Republic on Wednesday. Further deceleration is
expected as Chantal exits Haiti and enters Bahamian territory early Friday. A
weakness in the subtropical ridge should allow the storm to move northward
through the Bahamas Friday and Saturday. Per the last few model runs, forecasters
think that Chantal could turn toward Florida as the subtropical ridge rebuilds
westward. Forecasters do want to rule out the possibility that Chantal is
driven across Florida and finds itself in the eastern Gulf of Mexico about a
week from now. Forecasters confidence in the first 5 days of the forecast track
is about average.
Environmental conditions are good enough to allow Chantal to gain
strength, becoming a 65 mph tropical storm by the time it reaches Hispaniola.
The attainment of hurricane strength is not likely, nor forecasted, but the
possibility should not be discounted. Chantal will weaken across the rugged
terrain of Hispaniola and emerge in Bahamian waters by early Friday. Upper
level winds could hamper restrengthening while Chantal is over the Bahamas
Friday and Saturday. Forecasters confidence in the intensity forecast is good
through the first 48 hours, with less confidence in the following days of the
forecast.
A reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate Chantal later
today.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Caribbean: Sustained
tropical storm force winds are expected tomorrow.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Lesser Antilles
Rainfall: About 3 to
5 inches of rain are expected Tuesday. Isolated totals could be as high as 7
inches. These rains could cause localized flooding and perhaps mudslides on
barren hillsides.
Wind: Winds to
tropical storm force are expected Tuesday.
Storm Surge: Tides up
to 2 feet above normal are possible on Tuesday.
Dominican Republic
Rainfall: 3 to 6
inches of rain are possible on Wednesday with totals to 12 inches in the
mountains. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible.
Wind: Winds to
tropical storm force are possible along the southern coast.
Storm Surge: Tides 2-3
feet above normal are possible within 35 miles to the right of where the center
moves ashore.
Bahamas
Rainfall: 6-10
inches of rain could fall, mainly from Friday through Saturday. Street flooding
is possible.
Wind: Winds up
to tropical storm force are possible Friday and Saturday.
Storm Surge: Beaches
with onshore flow could see tides 1-2 feet above normal.
Residents are urged to monitor
the system as it has not passed the territory and due to the uncertainty of its
path. The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) will continue to monitor the
situation and provide updates accordingly. Please visit the DDM’s website and
subscribe for updates.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information inappropriately
for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the
loss of finances, property or life.
