July 24, 20131011Views


Current Position: 14.6N / 31.1W

Geographic Reference: 2010 miles east of the Leeward Islands

Estimated Max Winds: 50 mph gusting 65 mph

Movement: West-northwest at 20 mph

Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 65 miles

Minimum Central Pressure: 1002Mb

At 5:00 p.m. the centre of
Tropical Storm Dorian was located near Latitude 14.6 North Longitude 31.4 West.
Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph and this general motion
is expected to continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds
are near 50 mph with higher gusts.  Slight weakening is possible on
Thursday as Dorian moves over cooler water.

Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles from the centre.

The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb.

The strengthening
that occurred last night and this morning has levelled off. Winds are still
estimated at 50 mph. The circulation is maintaining itself fairly well, and it
looks healthy on satellite imagery. Atmospheric conditions are favourable for
some strengthening during the next 48 hours; however, ocean temperatures will
be marginal. Thereafter, ocean temperatures are warmer, but atmospheric
conditions will remain marginal. Therefore, a steady intensity of 60 mph is
shown through the forecast period. Forecasters have not ruled out Dorian
reaching hurricane strength over the next 24-48 hours before encountering less
favourable conditions, but the chances remain low.

Expected Impacts Onshore

Northern Leeward Islands, Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico

Wind: Tropical storm force winds
may extend 55 miles to the south of the centre and 65 miles to the north of the
centre on Sunday and Monday.

Rainfall: 3 to 6 inches of rain
are possible Sunday through early Monday. These rains may cause localized
flooding and mudslides.

Storm Surge: No surge expected as
the centre should pass north of the islands.

Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster
Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information
disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional
sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This
information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local
weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held
accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal
evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of
finances, property or life.