Current Location: 15.9N
Geographic Reference: 65 miles
east of Guadeloupe
Movement: West at 20
Max Winds: 45 mph
gusting to 60 mph
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 (1 size
/ 2 intensity)
Peak Forecast Hurricane Severity
Index: 10 (5 size / 5 intensity)
Forecasters have lowered the
intensity for the first 48 hours to just below hurricane strength, and lowered
the intensity slightly thereafter. Forecasters have increased the forward speed
of the storm slightly.
Isaac continues to track along its
previous forecast. The center should cross into the eastern Caribbean within
the next couple of hours and across the northeast Caribbean tomorrow, making
landfall in the southwestern Dominican Republic on Friday. Isaac should cross
the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba over the weekend, emerging into the
Florida Straits Sunday afternoon. It is still too early to tell if Isaac will
track west of the Florida Peninsula, over the Peninsula, or east of Florida.
The only change is that forecasters sped up the track slightly near the end,
and Isaac could be near the southwest coast of Florida on Monday.
Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Isaac has not
strengthened yet. In fact, the data from the recon plane indicates that Isaac
may be weaker than the 45 mph initial intensity. Forecasters have lowered their
intensity forecast during the first 48 hours to show only slow strengthening.
Isaac is experiencing wind shear and dry air, and this will limit
intensification as the center crosses into the Caribbean this afternoon and
evening. Wind shear should diminish to more moderate levels by tomorrow,
allowing for some strengthening. However, forecasters do not think that Isaac
will be a hurricane by the time it reaches the south coast of the Dominican
Republic on Friday. Interaction with the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba
will weaken Isaac to a moderate tropical storm. However, once the center
emerges into the Florida Straits on Sunday, conditions are favorable for Isaac
to reach hurricane strength prior to reaching south Florida on Monday morning.
Expected Impacts on Land
Lesser Antilles including St.
Lucia: Heavy squalls are moving through the area now. These squalls will
likely last through Thursday afternoon. Wind gusts to 60 mph and heavy rain are
likely for the Leeward Islands, from Guadeloupe through Anguilla. In Dominica,
Martinique and St. Lucia, winds are likely to remain below tropical storm
intensity. However, some squalls may occur today through Thursday afternoon
with gusts to 50 mph. The southernmost squalls extend as far south as Trinidad.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Occasional
heavy squalls are expected to begin this afternoon and continue through late
Thursday. Wind gusts of 55 mph to 65 mph are possible in the heavier squalls.
Dominican Republic: Tropical
storm conditions are likely for the southern coast Thursday night through Friday
afternoon. Heavy rainfall, flooding, and mudslides are likely throughout the
island of Hispaniola.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Caribbean: Tropical
storm force winds are likely for the eastern Caribbean Sea this afternoon
through Thursday. Wind gusts up to 65 mph will be possible in the heavier
squalls. The Department of Disaster Management is currently monitoring TS Isaac
and will provide updates accordingly. Please visit the DDM’s website at
www.bviddm.com and subscribe for future updates.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management
(DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by
the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or
contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be
used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no
means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses
this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any
decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.