Current Location: 15.6N 65.4W
Geographic Reference: 200miles SSE
of San Juan Puerto Rico
Movement: West at 15mph
Max Winds: 40 mph
gusting to 50 mph
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Forecast
11:00AM – Isaac continues to move to the west, but should turn to the
west-northwest later today. It should pass between Jamaica and Haiti on
Saturday, cross Cuba and emerge in the Straits of Florida on Monday. A weakness
in the ridging will allow Isaac to gradually turn to the northwest and north.
By Tuesday morning, forecasters expect it to be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
to the west of central Florida. Beyond the next five days, a landfall in the
Florida Panhandle, perhaps between Pensacola and Apalachicola appears most
likely with an arrival time of late Tuesday.
Isaac has a broad and poorly-defined core. This and land
interaction with the Greater Antilles will likely mean only slow strengthening
over the next few days. Conditions could be more favorable in the Gulf of
Mexico. Forecasters expect Isaac to be a Category 1 hurricane in the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it is quite possible that it could become
a category 2 hurricane.
Expected Impacts on Land
Lesser Antilles including St.
Lucia: Heavy squalls continue to affect the area. The squalls could last
into the late afternoon. Wind gusts to 40 mph and heavy rain are likely for all
of the Leeward and Windward Islands within the squalls.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Squalls
are continuing to rotate through the area. Wind gusts to 50 mph are possible in
the heavier squalls. the squalls should diminish in 24 hours.
Dominican Republic: Over the
next 24 hours squalls will spread westward across the area. Heavy rainfall,
flooding, and mudslides are likely throughout the island of Hispaniola.
Tropical storm force winds could reach the coast as soon as Friday morning.
Jamaica: Squalls
could reach the island on Friday night.
South Florida: Squalls
are forecast to begin spreading over the area late Sunday morning or early
Sunday afternoon.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Caribbean: Tropical
storm force winds are likely for the eastern Caribbean Sea this evening through
Friday. Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in the heavier squalls.
Eastern Gulf of Mexico: Sunday
night into Monday morning the first squalls will move into the southeastern
Gulf and spread northward.
North-Central Gulf of Mexico
Lease Areas: Squalls could be reaching the deepwater areas off southeast
Louisiana as early as late Monday afternoon or early evening. Our forecast has
the center of Isaac passing about 200 miles east of Mississippi Canyon on
Tuesday afternoon.
TROPICAL STORM JOYCE
Forecast
Tropical Depression Ten had been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Joyce by the National Hurricane Center. Joyce is
forecast to pass 200-300 miles north of the eastern Caribbean on Sunday
afternoon then turn north toward Bermuda before heading out to sea to the
northeast. Forecasters do not expect any impact on the islands of the eastern
Caribbean and probably little or no impact across the Canadian Maritimes.
Presently Joyce does not pose a threat to the territory however the Department
of Disaster Management (DDM) is still monitoring the system.
The DDM is monitoring both
systems and will provide updates when necessary. Please visit the DDM’s website
at www.bviddm.com for future updates.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.
