Current Location: 15.3N 64.0W
Geographic Reference: 255 miles SSE
of San Juan Puerto Rico
Movement: West at 20
Max Winds: 40 mph
gusting to 50 mph
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 (1 size
/ 1 intensity)
Peak Forecast Hurricane Severity
Index: 13 (6 size / 7 intensity)
Forecasters have decreased the
intensity forecast while Isaac is in the Caribbean. Isaac is forecast to strike
Haiti as a moderate tropical storm instead of a strong tropical storm. In
addition, the track forecast was shifted a little west of the previous
advisory. This brings the system farther into the Gulf of Mexico.
Isaac continues to move to the
west. However, a turn to the west-northwest should begin later today due to an
upper low in the northwest Caribbean. This should take the system toward the
southwest Peninsula of Haiti tomorrow. Thereafter, the latest model data
indicates a bit more ridging to the north of Isaac. The model tracks have
shifted to the west in response to this. Therefore, the latest forecast has
been shifted a little west of the previous. Future forecasts may have to be
shifted farther to the west.
The latest aircraft data indicates that Isaac may no longer have a
well-defined surface circulation. The aircraft has not been able to find a
center near the area of lowest pressure. Therefore, the short term intensity
forecast has been reduced. Only slight intensification into a moderate tropical
storm is likely prior to impacting Haiti. Long term, significant
intensification is likely in the Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Isaac is forecast to become a hurricane with 90 mph winds. However, it
is quite possible that it could become a category 2 hurricane.
Expected Impacts on Land
Lesser Antilles including St.
Lucia: Heavy squalls continue to affect the area. These squalls will
likely last through This afternoon. Wind gusts to 40 mph and heavy rain are
likely for all of the Leeward and Windward Islands within the squalls.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Squalls
are continuing to rotate through the area. Wind gusts of 45 mph to 55 mph are
possible in the heavier squalls.
Dominican Republic: Tropical
storm conditions are likely for the southern coast Thursday night through
Friday afternoon. Heavy rainfall, flooding, and mudslides are likely throughout
the island of Hispaniola.
South Florida: Squalls
are forecast to begin spreading over the area late Sunday morning or early
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Caribbean: Tropical
storm force winds are likely for the eastern Caribbean Sea this evening through
Thursday. Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in the heavier squalls.
Residents are encouraged to
monitor the situation and squall like conditions with gusty winds in excess of
40mph are possible. Please visit the Department of Disaster Management’s
website at www.bviddm.com subscribe for future updates.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM)
is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the
Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted
by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a
guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can
the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this
information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any
decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.