Two disturbances Invest 97L and Invest 96L are located in the Eastern Atlantic and moving west. Disturbance 18 (Invest 97L) is located along 51.5W. This is about 625 miles east of Martinique. The disturbance is moving to the west at 25 to 30 mph. A slightly north of due west motion is expected during the next several days. This will bring the system into the Caribbean very early tomorrow. Wind gusts over 40 mph along with periods of heavy rainfall are likely as the system moves through the northern Windward and the Leeward Islands. Tomorrow and Monday, the disturbance will be passing south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Gusts over 40 mph are likely for these areas as well.
The disturbance is showing signs of organization this morning. However, there are no signs of a surface circulation. The very fast forward speed is likely to prevent tropical development during the next 3 to 4 days. Once the system moves into the western Caribbean late in the week, environmental conditions may become more favorable for development. The latest model guidance indicates that in the 5 to 6 day time period, the disturbance may move into the Bay of Campeche. This is where the greatest chance of tropical development will be. However, the models are indicating that there could be more land interaction than forecasters were expecting yesterday. For this reason, forecasters continue to estimate the chance of development during the next 7 days to be 25 percent. Regardless of tropical development, increased squalls are likely late next week for the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Disturbance 20 (Invest 96L) is located along 27W, about 300 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The movement is to the west near 15 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next several days. The disturbance is about a week away from the Caribbean. Squalls associated with the disturbance have decreased in intensity and areal coverage. The models also do not indicate any significant development. The chance of tropical development remains 20 percent.
Residents are urged to make seasonal preparations as move into the period of high tropical cyclone activity. The Department of Disaster Management will continue to monitor the systems and advise the public accordingly. Please visit our website at www.bviddm.com or join us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/bvi.ddm/