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WEATHER UPDATE – DISTURBANCE 31 BECOMES BETTER DEFINED

WEATHER UPDATE – DISTURBANCE 31 BECOMES BETTER DEFINED

August 1, 2012846Views

An area of low pressure
located 12.0N/48.9W or about 810 miles east of Saint Lucia has become better
defined with movement toward the West at 18mph. 

The environmental
conditions of this system are conducive for tropical cyclone formation causing
it to slowly becoming better organized. According to Forecasters this low pressure
system could become a tropical depression or possibly a Tropical Storm within
the next 24 hours, possibly as early as tonight. There is a 75 percent chance of
this system becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and the
chance
of it developing beyond 48 hours is 80 percent.

Recent satellite imagery indicates that the center of the
disturbance has reformed a little to the north and has become much better
organized. Thunderstorms are increasing near the center, and a low-level
circulation is becoming increasingly more evident on satellite loops. A
reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow
afternoon.

Forecast takes the disturbance into the islands of the Eastern
Caribbean just to the south of St. Lucia early on Friday afternoon, probably as
a tropical storm with sustained winds of 40-50 mph. Beyond Friday, a west to
west-northwest track should continue through early next week. By next Monday
afternoon, the system is expected to be located to the south of Jamaica. By
next Wednesday night, the system could be approaching the Yucatan Peninsula.

While it is not expected that the disturbance will become a
hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean, there is a chance that if it survives to
reach the Western Caribbean next week that it could become a hurricane at that
time.

The DDM is monitoring the weather conditions and will provide
updates where necessary. Please visit the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and
subscribe for future updates.

Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by
the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide
by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM
or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.