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TROPICAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 16, 2023

TROPICAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 16, 2023

We continue to monitor a strong tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic, which forecasters expect may be near the northern Leeward Islands by next Friday.

The disturbance is expected to develop a low-level circulation at some point as it tracks across the Tropical Atlantic over the coming week. There is an increasing chance it could become a tropical depression as soon as early next week, and it may be a weak tropical storm prior to reaching the northeastern Caribbean.

Forecasters also anticipate that by late next week, steering currents would weaken as the system nears the northeast Caribbean. With no appreciable high pressure area to its north, there will be a good opportunity for any tropical depression or storm to take a northward turn near the northeastern Caribbean next Friday or Saturday. This turn could occur before it reaches the northeast Caribbean, but the timing of the turn is uncertain. A track northward into the open Atlantic seems most likely after it reaches or nears the northeast Caribbean beyond a week from today. In addition, model guidance indicates weakening after the system nears the northeast Caribbean late next week.

Given the increasing model agreement that this disturbance will develop, forecasters believe the chance of tropical development is near 20 percent over the next 48 hours, then 80 percent beyond 48 hours.

๐˜ฟ๐™ž๐™จ๐™˜๐™ก๐™–๐™ž๐™ข๐™š๐™ง: ๐™๐™๐™š ๐˜ฟ๐™š๐™ฅ๐™–๐™ง๐™ฉ๐™ข๐™š๐™ฃ๐™ฉ ๐™ค๐™› ๐˜ฟ๐™ž๐™จ๐™–๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™š๐™ง ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™–๐™œ๐™š๐™ข๐™š๐™ฃ๐™ฉ (๐˜ฟ๐˜ฟ๐™ˆ) ๐™ž๐™จ ๐™ฃ๐™ค๐™ฉ ๐™–๐™ฃ ๐™ค๐™›๐™›๐™ž๐™˜๐™ž๐™–๐™ก ๐™ˆ๐™š๐™ฉ๐™š๐™ค๐™ง๐™ค๐™ก๐™ค๐™œ๐™ž๐™˜๐™–๐™ก ๐™Š๐™›๐™›๐™ž๐™˜๐™š. ๐™๐™๐™š ๐™„๐™ฃ๐™›๐™ค๐™ง๐™ข๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™™๐™ž๐™จ๐™จ๐™š๐™ข๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™–๐™ฉ๐™š๐™™ ๐™—๐™ฎ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐˜ฟ๐™š๐™ฅ๐™–๐™ง๐™ฉ๐™ข๐™š๐™ฃ๐™ฉ ๐™ž๐™จ ๐™œ๐™–๐™ฉ๐™๐™š๐™ง๐™š๐™™ ๐™›๐™ง๐™ค๐™ข ๐™– ๐™ฃ๐™ช๐™ข๐™—๐™š๐™ง ๐™ค๐™› ๐™ฅ๐™ง๐™ค๐™›๐™š๐™จ๐™จ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™–๐™ก ๐™จ๐™ค๐™ช๐™ง๐™˜๐™š๐™จ ๐™ช๐™จ๐™š๐™™ ๐™ค๐™ง ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™–๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™š๐™™ ๐™—๐™ฎ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐˜ฟ๐˜ฟ๐™ˆ ๐™ฉ๐™ค ๐™ฅ๐™ง๐™ค๐™ซ๐™ž๐™™๐™š ๐™จ๐™ช๐™˜๐™ ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™›๐™ค๐™ง๐™ข๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ. ๐™๐™๐™ž๐™จ ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™›๐™ค๐™ง๐™ข๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™ž๐™จ ๐™ฉ๐™ค ๐™—๐™š ๐™ช๐™จ๐™š๐™™ ๐™–๐™จ ๐™– ๐™œ๐™ช๐™ž๐™™๐™š ๐™—๐™ฎ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™ฎ๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™š ๐™ฌ๐™๐™ค ๐™๐™–๐™จ ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™š๐™ง๐™š๐™จ๐™ฉ ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™ก๐™ค๐™˜๐™–๐™ก ๐™ฌ๐™š๐™–๐™ฉ๐™๐™š๐™ง ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™™๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™จ. ๐˜ฝ๐™ฎ ๐™ฃ๐™ค ๐™ข๐™š๐™–๐™ฃ๐™จ ๐™˜๐™–๐™ฃ ๐˜ฟ๐˜ฟ๐™ˆ ๐™ค๐™ง ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐˜ฝ๐™‘๐™„ ๐™‚๐™ค๐™ซ๐™š๐™ง๐™ฃ๐™ข๐™š๐™ฃ๐™ฉ ๐™—๐™š ๐™๐™š๐™ก๐™™ ๐™–๐™˜๐™˜๐™ค๐™ช๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™–๐™—๐™ก๐™š ๐™—๐™ฎ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™ฎ๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™š ๐™ฌ๐™๐™ค ๐™ช๐™จ๐™š๐™จ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™ž๐™จ ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™›๐™ค๐™ง๐™ข๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™–๐™ฅ๐™ฅ๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฅ๐™ง๐™ž๐™–๐™ฉ๐™š๐™ก๐™ฎ ๐™›๐™ค๐™ง ๐™ก๐™š๐™œ๐™–๐™ก ๐™š๐™ซ๐™ž๐™™๐™š๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™š ๐™ค๐™ง ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™Ÿ๐™ช๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™›๐™ž๐™˜๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™ค๐™› ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™ฎ ๐™™๐™š๐™˜๐™ž๐™จ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™ฌ๐™๐™ž๐™˜๐™ ๐™ข๐™–๐™ฎ ๐™ง๐™š๐™จ๐™ช๐™ก๐™ฉ ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™ก๐™ค๐™จ๐™จ ๐™ค๐™› ๐™›๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™š๐™จ, ๐™ฅ๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฅ๐™š๐™ง๐™ฉ๐™ฎ ๐™ค๐™ง ๐™ก๐™ž๐™›๐™š.