Tropical
Depression Five is located at 13.0N/53.8W or about 490 miles East of St. Lucia
with movement toward the West at 18mph.
Model
guidance remains relatively tightly-clustered on a west to west-northwest track
for the next 5 days. This would take the center near St. Lucia around noon on
Friday and about 100 miles south of Jamaica on Monday morning.
There are
some indications that high pressure to its north will weaken by Monday,
allowing for a gradual northwesterly turn toward the Southern Gulf next Tuesday
or Wednesday.
Moderate
westerly wind shear continues to impact the northern half of the depression
this morning. This wind shear should continue for another 12-24 hours,
preventing much significant strengthening prior to the center reaching the
Caribbean. Once in the Eastern Caribbean, conditions aloft become favorable for
strengthening. According to Forecasters, the depression will probably become a
weak tropical storm by the time it passes St. Lucia on Friday, and quite
possibly a hurricane by the time it is passing southwest of Jamaica early next
week.
Expected
Impacts on Land
Heavy
squalls will begin impacting the Eastern Caribbean region on Friday morning and
continue through Friday evening. These squalls may spread northwestward to the
U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, though the
heaviest squalls should remain south of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands. Expect wind gusts to 50 mph in heavier squalls, along with
heavy rainfall. These conditions are likely even if the system does not develop
into a tropical storm.
The DDM is
monitoring the weather conditions and will provide updates where necessary.
Residents are advised to remain in a high state of readiness as we are in the
third month of the six month hurricane season. Please visit the DDM’s website
at www.bviddm.com and subscribe for future updates.
Disclaimer:
The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.
Disclaimer:
The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.
