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DISTURBANCE 1 EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

DISTURBANCE 1 EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

October 10, 2014630Views

Current Position: 15.8N, 52.9W

Geographic Reference: 555 miles east of the Leeward Islands

Movement: West-northwest at 17 mph

Chance of Development
Within 48 Hours: 
30 percent

Chance of Development
Within 120 hours: 
60
percent

Forecast Confidence: Average

Organizational Trend: Steady

At 10:00PM Invest 90L
(Disturbance 1) was located 15.8N, 52.9W or approximately 555 miles east of the
Leeward Islands. Movement is to the WNW at 17mph. Forecasters have increased
the chance of development to 60 percent. The thunderstorms associated with Disturbance
1 have decreased over the past few hours. This is typical for the late
afternoon and evening hours. Forecasters expect thunderstorms to increase
during the early morning hours. There has been no change in organization and no
change in the forecast. The system is likely to develop into a depression
within the next few days. It could develop as early as Sunday but it will
likely be early next week before it becomes a depression. Some model guidance
indicates it could become a tropical storm or hurricane by late next week.

The
system is expected to move through or just north of the Leeward and Virgin
Islands, as well as Puerto Rico, on Sunday and Monday. Thereafter, a track
toward the Turks and Caicos is expected. A northward turn is likely on
Wednesday, keeping the system well east of Florida and the southeastern United
States.

Expected Impacts Onshore

The Virgin Islands: The main impact will be rainfall. Forecasters
think that the heaviest rains should remain just north of the Caribbean.
However, any deviation to the south could bring flooding rains to the islands.
These impacts would occur on Sunday and Monday.

Southeast Bahamas/Turks
and Caicos: 
Tropical storm
conditions are likely in the middle to latter part of next week.

Expected Impacts
Offshore

Tropical storm force
winds are possible for the waters near the southeastern Bahamas in the middle
to latter part of next week.

 Residents are encouraged
to monitor the progress of Disturbance 1 as moves further east. The Department
of Disaster Management (DDM) will continue to monitor the system and provide
updates accordingly. Please visit the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and
subscribe for updates.