9TH September 2019 – Disturbance 2 is located to the north of Puerto Rico along 63W. It is moving west near 10 mph. The system is nearly void of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity. However, it does feature some modest atmospheric rotation. The system may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over the Bahamas during the Thursday and Friday time frame and could be near or over Florida by the weekend. The forecast confidence is relatively low for late this week. The chance of this system becoming a tropical depression or minimal tropical storm is 20 percent within the next week.
Disturbance 1 is along 42W and moving west near 20 mph. The system is gradually featuring less atmospheric rotation and weaker thunderstorms. This coupled with less aggressive model guidance has led to a reduction in the chance of development. At this time forecasters think the disturbance is likely to remain weak as it tracks westward. The chance of development is 20 percent. Residents are reminded although conditions have decreased for development the disturbance should still be monitored for any sudden changes.
A new disturbance is moving off the west coast of Africa. The system exhibits high moisture levels and modest atmospheric rotation. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally favorable for gradual development as the disturbance tracks to the west. The chance of development within the next 7 days is 20 percent.
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Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.
