Current Location: 15.5N/47.5W
Geographic Reference: 920 miles
east of the Leeward Islands
Movement: West-northwest at 20
Max Winds: 80 mph gusting to 100
Organizational Trend: Slowly
Forecast Track Confidence: Average,
due to reasonable model agreement.
Katia is tracking to the
west-northwest with a similar motion expected for the next 1-2 days. A gradual
turn to the northwest and north is expected over the weekend. On this track
Katia will pass over 300 miles north of the Caribbean Sea on Sunday and Monday.
Once Katia makes a northward turn it could pass close to Bermuda on Wednesday
Katia has strengthened some
overnight. Conditions are favorable for further development. Forecasters think
Katia could become a category 3 hurricane tomorrow. After about 4 days, wind
shear could increase, which may cause some slight weakening. The confidence in
the intensity forecast remains about average.
Expected Impacts on Land
High waves could affect the north
facing beaches of the northern Leeward Islands this weekend. Outer squalls
could move over the far northern islands by late Saturday or early Sunday. At
present all indications propose that Katia would not be a threat to the Virgin
Islands however, as the system has not passed the territory, residents should
continue to monitor the hurricane in the event the forecast track changes and
brings the hurricane closer to the territory.
The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) will continue to monitor the
weather conditions and provide updates accordingly. Persons can visit the DDM’s
website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe to their notification link to receive further
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information.
This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local
weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held
accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal
evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of
finances, property or life.