TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
8:00 AM ECT MON, OCT 2, 2023
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
..HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT INCREASING FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO PHILIPPE…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT, ST. KITTS, NEVIS, ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL STORM IS IN THE MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN, AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED AT SHORT NOTICE
AT 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 86 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARDS AND APPROXIMATELY 285 MILE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BVI
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY LATE TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT PHILIPPE COULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM), PRIMARILY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).
BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF PHILIPPE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD PRONE AND LOW LYING AREAS;HENCE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MONTSERRAT, ST.KITTS, NEVIS AND ANGUILLA LATER TODAY
ABOVE NORMAL SEAS COULD IMPACT COASTAL AREAS;HENCE MARINE ADVISORIES WHICH INCLUDE HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. MARINERS ARE ASKED TO STAY IN PORT AND SEA BATHERS SHOULD AVOID THE BEACHES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTLINES TODAY.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF PHILIPPE AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE MORE SPECIFIC ACTIONS IF REQUIRED.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT MIDDAY OR SOONER IF REQUIRED.
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FORECASTER
LENARD JOSIAH
