…DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.9N 49.1W
ABOUT 875 MI…1405 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA/ 934 MILES SSE OF ROAD TOWN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH…37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Guadeloupe
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches could be
required later tonight or early Monday.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 49.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.
𝗢𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗯𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗟𝗲𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗜𝘀𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗧𝘂𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗰𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨.𝗦. 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗩𝗶𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻 𝗜𝘀𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀
𝗧𝘂𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗻𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by late Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found inthe Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the northern Leeward
Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum
amounts of 10 inches, is expected.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday
morning:
Windward Islands… 1 to 2 inches
Southern Leeward Islands… 2 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
The Virgin Islands will continue to monitor this cyclone as we maybe placed under a Tropical Storm Watch within the next few hours. There is a possiblity that things may change as we continue to monitor all updates on this system.
Residents should continue to closely monitor this system and work to complete any seasonal preparations in case this system develops into a threat for the Virgin Islands
For more information, see the link below: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/112335.shtml
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not a Meteorological Office. Information shared by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources contracted by the Department. This information should be used as a guide for anyone who has an interest in local weather conditions. By no means can DDM or the Government of the Virgin Islands be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.
