August 20, 20122049Views

Current Location: 15.7N

Geographic Reference: 1080 miles
east of Dominica

Movement: West to
west-northwest at 21 mph

Organizational Trend: Steady

Chance of Development Within 48
80 percent

Chance of Development Beyond 48
90 percent

Changes from Our Previous

No significant changes.


The disturbance has not become
any better organized overnight. It is likely that this disturbance will be a
weak or moderate tropical storm by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean
late Wednesday, but it is unlikely to become a hurricane by that time. After
that time, the uncertainty in both the track and intensity increases
significantly. The system is likely to move to the west-northwest toward the
central Caribbean. If it interacts with the Greater Antilles islands of
Hispaniola and Cuba, that would cause significant weakening.

Once this system moves into the eastern Caribbean in a couple of
days, forecasters will have a better idea whether this system will continue
west-northwestward toward Yucatan and into the Gulf of Mexico, or whether it
will turn to the north-northwest over the Greater Antilles and then over
Florida or the Bahamas. The intensity is a huge question mark at this point.
However, if the system is able to reach the northwest Caribbean as a tropical
storm, conditions will be very favorable in the Gulf of Mexico for
intensification into a hurricane.

Expected Impacts on Land

Lesser Antilles including St.
The first squalls from the system are likely to move through the
area late Tuesday or early Wednesday morning. Tropical storm force winds and
heavy rain are likely for the Leeward Islands, from Dominica through Anguilla
on Wednesday. These conditions are expected even if the system does not develop
into a tropical cyclone. In Martinique and St. Lucia, winds are likely to
remain below tropical storm intensity if Disturbance 37 moves as forecasted.
However, some squalls may occur Wednesday through early Thursday with gusts
near tropical storm force.

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Tropical
storm force winds and heavy rainfall are likely on Thursday and Friday. These
conditions are likely even if the system does not become a tropical cyclone.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Eastern Caribbean: Tropical
storm force winds are likely for the eastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and
Thursday. Wind gusts to hurricane force will be possible if the disturbance
becomes a moderate tropical storm by that time. Residents are urged to make all
preparations as activity in the Atlantic is increasing.

 The Department of Disaster
Management is monitoring the current system and will provide updates when
necessary. Please visit the DDM’s website at and subscribe for
future updates.

Disclaimer: The
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.