TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE ISLANDS

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

…TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE ISLANDS…

THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL 95, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND IMPACT THE CARIBBEAN.

GIVEN THE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHAT EXACT TROPICAL-CYCLONE-HAZARD VALUES, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED OR LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. NOTWITHSTANDING, THE SYSTEM COULD BE IN THE VICINITY AROUND SATURDAY, AS A TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE, ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT THREAT LEVEL IS LITTLE TO NONE, IT COULD RISE TO MODERATE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. NO IMMEDIATE PREPARATIONS ARE NEEDED BUT MONITOR CLOSELY.

AT 8 AM LST OR 1200 UTC, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1620 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 35 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THERE IS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF AL 95 BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

MOST AVAILABLE MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM IN THE VICINITY OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AROUND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR A NUMBER OF OTHER SCENARIOS TO PLAY OUT, INCLUDING THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM PASSING A RELATIVELY SAFE DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.

PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT, AT THIS TIME, BUT GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK, AN ALERT WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM CLOSELY AND HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS COMPLETED, AS WE ARE IN THE PEAK MONTHS OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.

FORECASTER
DALE DESTIN