Current Position: 10.6N and
50.6W
Geographic Reference: 630 miles
east-southeast of Barbados
Our Estimated Max. Winds: 40 mph
gusting to 50 mph
Latest NHC Estimated Max Wind and
Gusts (at 7AM CDT): 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Movement: Westward
at 26 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 (1 size
/1 intensity)
Max. Predicted Hurricane Severity
Index: 3 (1 size /2 intensity)
Max. Predicted Radius of Tropical
Storm Force Winds: 80 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Previous Forecast
The portion of the forecast track
was shifted slightly to the east of the previous one. This will bring the
center of Chantal across Haiti. Otherwise, there are no major changes.
Forecast
Tropical Storm Chantal continues
rapidly to the west. Chantal should track a bit more to the west-northwest over
the next few days. On Tuesday morning, it should reach the Windward Islands. As
Chantal moves through the Caribbean Sea toward Hispaniola it should slow some.
An even slower northwestward to northward track will bring Chantal through the
Bahamas Friday and Saturday. Beyond then Chantal could be a threat to the
southeastern United States, particularly northeastern Florida to the Carolinas.
Should Chantal fall apart, that would make it more likely to track to the left
of the forecast track. Thus the possibility of Chantal entering the eastern
Gulf of Mexico cannot be ruled out.
The intensity forecast is the part of the forecast of which
forecasters have less confidence in. Chantal’s fast forward motion, wind shear
along its path, and interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba are all factors that
would suggest only slow strengthening at best and even weakening. Some modest
strengthening is possible before Chantal reaches the Windward Islands, but it
is still expected to be a tropical storm. In fact, forecasters expect Chantal
to remain at tropical storm status for the duration of the forecast period.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Caribbean: Sustained
tropical storm force winds are expected tomorrow.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Lesser Antilles
Rainfall: About 3 to
5 inches of rain are possible Tuesday. Isolated totals could be as high as 7
inches. These rains could cause localized flooding and perhaps mudslides on
barren hillsides.
Wind: Winds to
tropical storm force are possible Tuesday in the Windward Islands.
Storm Surge: Tides up
to 2 feet above normal are possible on Tuesday.
Dominican Republic
Rainfall: 3 to 6
inches of rain are possible on Wednesday with higher totals in the mountains.
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible.
Wind: Winds to
tropical storm force are possible along the southwestern parts of the coast.
Storm Surge: Tides up
to 2 feet above normal are possible within 35 miles to the right of where the
center moves ashore.
Bahamas
Rainfall: 6-10
inches of rain could fall, mainly from Friday through Saturday. Some street
flooding is possible.
Wind: Winds up
to tropical storm force are possible Friday and Saturday.
Storm Surge: Beaches
with onshore flow could see tides 1-2 feet above normal
Residents are urged to monitor
the system as it has not passed the territory and due to the uncertainty of its
path. The Department of Disaster Management(DDM) will continue to monitor the
situation and provide updates accordingly. Please visit the DDM’s website and
subscribe for updates.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information inappropriately
for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the
loss of finances, property or life.
