25TH July 2020
Residents should pay close attention to Disturbance 1 as it has the potential to develop into a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles. Current long range forecasts show that this system has the potential to affect the Northern Leeward Islands by the middle of next week.
At 8 AM, Gonzalo was located 13.3 degrees north, 59.8 degrees west our approximately 100 miles east of Trinidad. It is moving to the west near 18 mph. This motion will take Gonzalo through the southern Windward Islands this afternoon. Winds are 40 mph. Minimal change in intensity is expected before moving through the Windward Islands. Forecasters think the tropical storm should then dissipate in the southeast Caribbean.
Disturbance 1 is a weak area of low pressure centered about 11.6N, 26.2W, or about 2583 miles east south east of the British Virgin Islands. The disturbance is moving to the west at 18 mph. A fairly rapid west to west-northwest motion is expected over the next several days. The disturbance is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions should be somewhat favorable for development over the next few days.
If this system were to develop and head towards the British Virgin Islands at its current speed it will be in the vicinity of the territory by Wednesday or Thursday. Residents are encouraged to expedite preparations and continue to monitor this system.
Forecasters have indicated this may be a tropical storm when it approaches the Lesser Antilles. The chance of tropical development is 60 percent.
Persons at home and abroad are encouraged to download the DDM’s Alert app in the Apple App store or Google Play store to receive updates of any hazards affecting the Territory.
You can also visit the DDM’s webpage at www.bviddm.com and subscribe for updates or like us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/bvi.ddm.
Image credited to National Hurricane Centre
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.