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ABOVE NORMAL HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES TO BE FORECASTED

ABOVE NORMAL HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES TO BE FORECASTED

June 6, 2013814Views

Thursday, June 6 – The June Hurricane Forecast has been released by the Colorado State University and forecasters continue to predict a very active 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


The tropical Atlantic remains very warm, and forecasters do not anticipate development of a significant El Niño and are therefore calling for an above-average probability of United States (US) and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.


Information obtained through May 2013 indicates that the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season will have more activity than the median 1981 to 2010 seasons. The June forecast estimates that 2013 will have about 9 hurricanes, 18 named storms, and 4 major Category 3, 4, 5 hurricanes. The probability of the US major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140 percent of the long-period average. The probability for at least one major category 3, 4, 5 hurricane tracking into the Caribbean is 61 percent (average for last century is 42 percent).  This forecast is the same as the forecast issued in early April.


The above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season is due to the combination of an anomalously warm tropical Atlantic and a relatively low likelihood of El Niño.


The first Tropical Storm for the season has already formed.  As of this morning, Andrea was located south of Apalachicola and west of Tampa, Florida moving in a north easterly direction at 15 miles per hour (mph) with maximum winds of 60 mph gusting to 70 mph. Andrea became better organised overnight and satellite imagery and radar data indicate that Andrea is likely peaking in intensity. Forecasters expect Andrea to have maximum sustained winds of 60 mph at landfall. Florida Peninsula and eastern Panhandle are likely to see localised flooding, strong winds and storm surge along the Florida Gulf Coast


Deputy Director, Evangeline Inniss said, “Community meetings have been held in Jost van Dyke and last night in Virgin Gorda.  Persons living in the Sister Islands are being urged to participate in the upcoming Community Emergency Response Training activities scheduled for June 11to15 in Virgin Gorda and June 24 to 28 in Jost Van Dyke.  Similar training was offered in Anegada last year and that island now has twelve community emergency first responders.”


Inniss further stated, “It is the intention of the DDM to build strong response capacity within the Sister Islands and to heighten their level of awareness and preparedness.” 


Residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season, and therefore it is important for them to be ready at all times. Public service announcements can be heard on the local radio and television stations as well as read in the local newspapers.


The Department of Disaster Management has provided preparedness information on its website at www.bviddm.com and Facebook page.