WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
SUN, OCT 1, 2023
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
…TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…
…A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS, IN THIS CASE, THAT A TROPICAL STORM IS IN THE MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN, AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS…
AT 5 AM ECT OR 0900Z, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBUDA.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MILES PER HOUR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AS PHILIPPE MOVES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 150 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB OR 29.50 INCHES.
ON ITS PRESENT TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HENCE, A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS SHOULD COMPLETE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS AND BE PREPARED TO START TO IMPLEMENT THEM.
FORECASTING OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE REMAINS CHALLENGING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST PATH. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR IT TO STAY AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE COULD COME VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS. HENCE IN THE REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO, PHILIPPE NOW POSES AN ELEVATED OR A MINOR THREAT TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM FORCE WINDS, BUT GREATER IMPACTS FROM ABOVE NORMAL SEA SWELLS.
AS A RESULT, WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY.
FORECASTER
JALEEL JACOBS
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