TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
12:20 PM ECT SUN, OCT 01, 2023
…A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA…
…MORE WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR OTHER ISLANDS…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT, ST. KITTS, NEVIS, ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL STORM IS IN THE MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN, AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECASTING OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE REMAINS CHALLENGING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST PATH. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR IT TO STAY AWAY FROM THE MENTIONED ISLANDS; HOWEVER, THERE ARE WEATHER MODELS THAT SUGGEST THAT IT WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA. HENCE, IN THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO, THE STORM POSES AN ELEVATED OR MINOR THREAT TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED IMPACTS, TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA, FROM MINIMAL STORM-FORCE WINDS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE MARINE IMPACTS FROM ABOVE-NORMAL SWELLS.
AT 11 AM ECT OR 1500 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 410 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 7 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION ON TUESDAY. ย MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND PHILIPPE COULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ย STORM-FORCE WINDS extend outward up to 170 miles, MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRE.
OUR PRIMARY TOOLS USED FOR FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONES CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE PATH PHILIPPE MIGHT TAKE. SOME OF THESE MODELS PROJECT THAT PHILIPPE WILL HEAD NORTH AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. BUT THERE ARE OTHERS THAT INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE WILL KEEP GOING WEST AND GET VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER SOME ISLANDS BEFORE TURNING NORTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND FURTHER WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR OTHER LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY. WARNINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS, IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN BY 6 PM, OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED.
FORECASTER DALE DESTIN
