WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
6.00 PM ECT THU, OCT 19, 2023
THIS IS FOR BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS, IN THIS CASE, THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN, AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER DATE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AT 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 622 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY, AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
ON ITS PROJECTED PATH, THE CENTER OF TAMMY WILL PASS EAST OF THE BVI EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM) PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION, TAMMY IS FORECAST TO PASS A LITTLE OVER 100 MILES EAST OF THE BVI EARLY SUNDAY AS A HURRICANE WITH MOST OF STRONG WINDS CONCENTRATED ON THE EAST OF THE STORM. THIS MEANS THAT STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THESE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.; HOWEVER, THIS COULD CHANGE IF A WESTWARD TRACK PERSIST LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
RESIDENTS OF THE BVI ARE THEREFORE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TAMMY AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS.
A TROPICAL STROM WATCH IS NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 12 MIDNIGHT OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.
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FORECASTER
LENARD JOSIAH
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