TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 37
Tropical Disturbance 37 just ahead of Tropical Depression 14 is expected to approach the Northern Leeward Islands today and move in to the territory later today into tomorrow. The Disturbance has the potential to create unstable weather conditions increasing shower and thunderstorm activity in the territory. The National Hurricane Center has given the Disturbance a 10% chance of development which has not changed since the previous forecast.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
Current Location: 12.0N/39.9W
Geographic Reference: 1455 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
Movement: W at 20 mph
Maximum Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph
Organizational Trend: Slowly becoming better organized
Forecast Track Confidence: Average due to good model consensus and well-defined steering flow.
Changes From Previous Forecast
Some adjustments were made to the track and intensity forecasts.
Model guidance is in good agreement on a general west-northwest track for the next 5 days and forecasters think that this system will track very close to or directly over the islands of the northeast Caribbean on Saturday. Thereafter, a continued west-northwest motion with a gradual turn to the northwest is expected, generally along the same track taken by Katia.
Conditions favor steady development over the next several days. The depression will very likely become Tropical Storm Maria later today. How strong it gets before reaching the northeast Caribbean is a bit uncertain. Forecasters think it will be a strong tropical storm as it moves through the islands of the northeastern Caribbean, becoming a hurricane north of the Dominican Republic however this scenario is based on the present data that is available.
Expected Impacts on Land
Leeward Islands: Squalls may reach the islands of the northeast Caribbean as early as Friday evening.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands: Squalls may reach the area by Saturday morning.
The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) will continue to monitor the system and provide updates accordingly. Please visit the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe to our notification link to receive further updates.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.