1st October 2010 10AM – A Doppler radar has indicated scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with heavy rainfall across the Virgin Islands. These conditions will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall which may lead to flooding on roads and poor drainage areas. No Flash Flood Watches or Warnings have been issued at this time, however persons should exercise caution while driving and operating small motor vessels at sea due to poor visibility.
Tropical Disturbance 57 consists of a large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands. It is moving to the west-northwest at 15-20 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 20-30 mph in the stronger squalls. The area has not become any better organized overnight.
Tropical Disturbance 57 is expected to track to the west-northwest at 15-20 mph over the next couple of days, then slow down as it enters the eastern Caribbean. This would bring it through the northern Leeward Islands tomorrow night or early Sunday morning. The disturbance is then expected to move toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in the early part of next week.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring squally conditions with locally heavy rainfall to the Lesser Antilles, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend. Its slow motion will allow it to produce copious rainfall during the beginning of next week across the islands of the northeast Caribbean.
There is about a 20 percent chance that this system will become a tropical storm over the next 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours, conditions may not be as favorable for development as thought yesterday. Therefore, the chances for further development have been decreased from 50 to 40 percent. The probability of this system becoming a hurricane over the next 48 hours is very low, less than 5 percent. There is about a 15 percent chance that it could become a hurricane beyond then.
DDM will continue to monitor this system and provide releases as necessary. Please visit the Department of Disaster Management’s website at www.bviddm.com for continuously updated information.