August 22, 20121153Views

Current Location: 15.6N

Geographic Reference: 300 miles
east of Dominica

Movement: West at 17

Max Winds: 40 mph
gusting to 50 mph

Organizational Trend: Slowly

Forecast Confidence: Average

Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 (1 size
/ 1 intensity)

Peak Forecast Hurricane Severity
9 (3 size / 6 intensity)


The track forecast was shifted
slightly to the north. This will bring the system about 30 miles closer to the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. In addition, landfall is now forecast to occur
in the Dominican Republic on Friday. The intensity forecast was also reduced
after 60 hours to account for the land interaction.


Isaac continues to move slightly
north of due west. Model guidance indicates that this track should continue.
Therefore, the short term track has been shifted slightly to the north of the
previous forecast. This is expected to bring the system through the Leeward
Islands this afternoon or evening and south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands tomorrow. The latest indications are that there will be enough of a
weakness in the ridge of high pressure to the north of Isaac to allow for a
more west-northwest track after 48 hours. This is likely to bring the system inland
over the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Friday. After tracking over Cuba on
Saturday and Sunday, a more northwesterly track is expected. In 5 days, Isaac
may be in a position to directly impact South Florida.

The latest aircraft data indicates that the pressure has fallen
slightly. This indicates that Isaac is slightly better organized. However, the
system is still experiencing northeasterly shear. Therefore, only steady
intensification is forecast. Isaac is forecast to become a hurricane in 48 hours
and strike the Dominican Republic with 85 mph winds. Due to the very high
mountains on Hispaniola, it is expected to weaken to a tropical storm. Little
change is forecast while interacting with Cuba. Once it emerges into the
Florida Straits, environmental conditions are expected to be quite favorable
for intensification. Therefore, Isaac is forecast to regain hurricane status as
it approaches South Florida. It should be noted that the intensity would likely
be somewhat higher than indicated here if the system does not make landfall in
the Dominican Republic.

Expected Impacts on Land

Lesser Antilles including St.
Heavy squalls are moving through the area now. These squalls will
likely last through Thursday afternoon. Wind gusts to 65 mph and heavy rain are
likely for the Leeward Islands, from Guadeloupe through Anguilla. In Dominica,
Martinique and St. Lucia, winds are likely to remain well below tropical storm
intensity. However, some squalls may occur Wednesday through Thursday afternoon
with gusts to 50 mph. The southernmost squalls may extend as far south as

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Occasional
heavy squalls are expected to begin late Wednesday evening and continue through
late Thursday or early Friday. Wind gusts of 60 mph to 70 mph possible in the
heavier squalls.

Dominican Republic: Hurricane
conditions are likely for the southern coast Friday morning and afternoon.
Heavy rainfall, flooding, and mudslides are likely throughout the island of

Expected Impacts Offshore

Eastern Caribbean: Tropical
storm force winds are likely for the eastern Caribbean Sea Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Wind gusts up to 70 mph will be possible in the heavier


Residents are urged to expedite preparations
in  advance of the storm approaching the
territory. The Department of Disaster Management will continue to monitor the storm and provide updates when necessary. Please visit the DDM’s website at and subscribe for updates.



Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management
(DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by
the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or
contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be
used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no
means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses
this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any
decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.