August 22, 20121059Views

The Government of Antigua and Barbuda has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. 

At 1100 pm the center of tropical storm Isaac was located near latitude 15.6 north longitude 55.6 west. Isaac is moving toward the west near 18 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.  On the forecast track the center of Isaac should move through the Leeward Islands Wednesday evening and move over the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Isaac could become a hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 MB.

Expected Impacts on Land

Lesser Antilles including St. Lucia: The first squalls from the system are likely to move through the area within the next few hours and last through midday Thursday. Wind gusts to 65 mph and heavy rain are possible for the Leeward Islands, from Dominica through Anguilla. In Martinique and St. Lucia, winds are likely to remain well below tropical storm intensity. However, some squalls may occur Wednesday through early Thursday with gusts to 50 mph. The southernmost squalls may extend as far south as Trinidad.

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Occasional heavy squalls are expected to begin late Wednesday evening and continue through late Thursday or early Friday. Wind gusts of 55 mph to 65 mph possible in the heavier squalls.

Dominican Republic: Tropical Storm conditions are likely and hurricane conditions are possible for the southern coast late Thursday night through Friday afternoon. Heavy rainfall, flooding, and mudslides are likely throughout the island of Hispaniola.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Eastern Caribbean: Tropical storm force winds are likely for the eastern Caribbean Sea Wednesday evening through Thursday. Wind gusts up to 70 mph will be possible in the heavier squalls.

Wind – Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands by Wednesday afternoon or evening making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm conditions are expected over Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Thursday.  Hurricane conditions are possible over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands on Thursday.

Rainfall – total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are possible over the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands.  Total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Storm surge – Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the northern Leeward Islands Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Near the coast the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves.

Surf – dangerous surf and rip current conditions will affect the windward and Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. 

Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.