The Department of Disaster Management continues to monitor a strong tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic that is located along 31.5 W.
Forecasters from the National Hurricane Centre has highlighted that showers and thunderstorms associated with this tropical wave continue to show signs of organization. Due to favourable environment conditions they are predicting this wave has a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Residents should monitor this system closely and work to complete any seasonal preparations in case the system develops into a threat for our area.
Experts from StormGeo predicts this disturbance to move along the southern periphery of a ridge of high pressure to its north this week. By the end of the week, the ridge to the north is forecast to weaken. As this occurs, the system is expected to turn to the north. There is still some uncertainty in where this turn will take place. If the system is stronger, then it is expected to make the turn before reaching the northeastern Caribbean. If the system is weaker, then it is expected to move into the northeastern Caribbean before making the turn. At this time, the more likely scenario is for the system to be weaker and move into the northeastern Caribbean on Friday. However, at that time, the environmental conditions will be unfavorable in the northeastern Caribbean Sea which would cause the system to weaken quickly. This system is not expected to move westward across the Caribbean Sea and toward the Gulf of Mexico.
This wave is approximately 2361 miles east south east of Road Town traveling at approximately 15 mph and is currently not a threat to the Virgin Islands.