October 13, 20121418Views

Current Location: 15.9N/64.1W

Geographic Reference: 135 miles SSE of
St. Croix

Movement: NNW at 7 mph

Max Sustained Winds: 40 mph gusting
to 50 mph

Tropical Storm Force Winds: 175 miles mainly southeast of the center.

Organizational Trend: Slowly

Forecast Confidence: Average

Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 (1 size / 1 intensity)

Peak Hurricane Severity Index: 6 (3 size / 3 intensity)

Changes from Previous Forecast

There are no significant changes.


11:00AM 13th October 2012Tropical Storm Rafael continues to very gradually become better
organized, but aircraft reconnaissance data confirms that it has not
strengthened yet. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph, well to the east
of the center in squalls. Rafael is expected to gradually intensify over the
next 48 hours. By then, it will be a strong tropical storm in the middle of the
Atlantic. Rafael may undergo extratropical transition as it approaches
Newfoundland Wednesday night, but only slight weakening is expected by that

Rafael should track
north-northwestward to near the Virgin Islands in about 12 to 18 hours. Then it
will continue northward into the open Atlantic on Sunday. Forecasters expect it
to accelerate across the Atlantic and reach Newfoundland Wednesday
night/Thursday morning.

Expected Impacts on Land

Lesser Antilles: The strongest
winds are contained in squalls, where sustained winds of 40 mph to 50 mph will
be possible with gusts to 60 mph over the next 24 hours. Widespread rainfall
amounts of 4-8 inches with isolated totals to 12 inches are expected.

Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands: Some squalls could reach the area with winds of 30 mph to 40 mph.
Rainfall amounts up to 4 inches are possible.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Offshore St. Lucia: Sustained winds
30 mph to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph in squalls are possible over the next 12
to 24 hours.

Offshore Trinidad: Sustained winds
of 20 mph to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in squalls are still possible through
the day today.

The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is currently
monitoring the system and will provide updates accordingly. Please visit the
DDM’s website at and subscribe for future updates.


Special Advisories:


A Flash Flood Watch remains
in effect until 2PM.  
A  Flash Flood Watch is
issued by the when conditions are favorable for flash flooding in flood-prone
area,  usually when grounds are already
saturated from recent rains, or when upcoming rains will have the potential to
cause a flash flood.


A Small Craft Advisory is
in effect for Small Craft Operators and a precautionary advisory for Sea
Although conditions are presently stable
later this afternoon going into Sunday conditions will deteriorate.


Residents are urged to monitor the Tropical Storm as it has the
potential to create Mudslides from Flooding, impair Roads due to debris from
storm surge and falling rocks especially on the southern side of the territory.


Please visit the Department of Disaster Management’s website at and subscribe for future updates.


Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.