The Virgin Islands has been placed on Tropical Storm Warning in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm-force winds may impact the area as early as Tuesday evening, and continue through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches may cause flooding. Storm surge could elevate coastal seas from 1-3 feet above normal and create dangerous waves and surf.
The 11 am update from National Hurricane Centre follows:
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 55.6 West. The system is moving toward the west near 26 mph (43 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening. Then, the disturbance is forecast to move away from Puerto Rico over the western Atlantic through midweek.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it
nears the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours… high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
STORM SURGE:
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF:
Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
