July 4, 20172323Views

Image credited to the National Hurricane Centre

Please note the graphic represents a five day forecast area of uncertainty and not the coverage area of the system

Disturbance 1 is relatively stationary near 9.2N, 34W. Satellite wind data indicate that the system has a well-defined low level circulation. Shower and thunderstorm activity is increasing near the centre of the disturbance. Therefore, forecasters think there is a very high (90 percent) chance of this system developing. The system could become a tropical depression today if current organizational trends continue. A west-northwest track is expected over the next 5-7 days.

Forecasters’ current data continues to suggest that the most likely track of this system will take it north of the northeast Caribbean. It is expected to make its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Saturday. Forecasters do not however rule out the system tracking as far south as the northeast Caribbean. There continues to be considerable uncertainty regarding the predicted intensity.

The Department of Disaster Management is reminding the public that we are into the hurricane season and the potential for tropical cyclone development will continue to increase. Two helpful tips will be to contact the DDM and find out the closest shelter to your location if needed for evacuation and to find out which marine shelters are available and if they can accommodate your vessel.

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Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.