October 11, 2012981Views

Current Location: 11.1N/57.9W

Geographic Reference: 350 miles
southeast of Barbados

Movement: West-northwest
at 12 mph

Organizational Trend: Slowly

Chance of Development Within 48
40 percent

Chance of Development Beyond 48
50 percent

Changes from Previous Forecast

The system is undergoing some
structural changes, and forecasters have relocated the center to the northwest.
Forecasters have also increased the development potential from 30 to 40 percent
over the next 48 hours.


Forecasters expect slow
development of this large disturbance despite strong wind shear in the area
over the next couple of days. Beyond then conditions are expected to be more
conducive for development. While not yet a tropical cyclone, this system
already has winds to tropical storm strength in the squalls well to the north
and northeast of the center. If this condition persists, the disturbance would
skip the depression stage and be declared a tropical storm while moving over
the Leeward Islands.

Forecasters expect a west-northwest to northwest track over the
next few days. While near the northern Leewards, it should turn to the north
and remain east of the Bahamas and United States for the remainder of its life
span. Model guidance continues to shift a little eastward, and the center of
this system could remain just to the east of the Lesser Antilles. However, it
would still be close enough to spread squally conditions over the islands.

Expected Impacts on Land

Windward and Leeward Islands, including St. Lucia: Showers
and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the next 12 to 24 hours.
Sustained winds of 30 mph to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph in squalls are
possible Friday into the weekend along with up to 6 inches of rain.

Islands and Puerto Rico:
Sustained winds of 20 mph to 30 mph with
gusts possibly as high as 45 mph in squalls are possible early tomorrow through
Saturday night along with 3-6 inches of rain.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Offshore St. Lucia: Sustained
winds of 30 mph to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph in squalls are possible from
this afternoon through tomorrow night.

Offshore Trinidad: Sustained
winds of 20 mph to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in squalls are possible tomorrow
through Friday.


Residents should pay close attention
to this system as it has the potential of being a Tropical Storm when it
approaches or pass close to the territory.


The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is currently
monitoring the system and will provide updates accordingly. Please visit the
DDM’s website at and subscribe for future updates.


Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.