21st July 2020 – The National Hurricane Centre for the past few days continue to monitor Invest 99L/Disturbance 2. As of their 11am update chance of formation has now increased to 80 percent.
Disturbance 2 is moving westward across the tropical Atlantic and is located 1390 miles to the east of Trinidad near 9.0N, 39.5W. It is moving to the west at 7 mph. The disturbance has improved in organization over the past 24 hours and is very near tropical depression intensity. This system may develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm later today or on Wednesday. Due to the improved organization of the system and the small size of this system, forecasters have increased the chance of development since small tropical systems can develop more quickly. However, as it nears the Caribbean on Thursday into Friday, wind shear will increase and forecasters think this will weaken the system. Forecasters expect this system to reach the islands of the Eastern Caribbean by Friday into Saturday and will produce increasing showers and thunderstorms.
Presently the forecast track has the system staying away from the Virgin Islands however, the DDM will continue to monitor progress of the system and provide updates of any changes.
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Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.