WOCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN…
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95, WHICH IS STILL VERY FAR AWAY BUT COULD BE IN
OR NEAR THE AREA OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WHILE THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT AL95 WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE, IN THE COMING WEEK, THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
ITS FAR DISTANCE FROM THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, A MAJORITY OF MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRE OF WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE AT LEAST A TROPICAL STORM WILL LIKELY
PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. HENCE, AT THIS EARLY STAGE, THE REASONABLE WORST-
CASE SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT AL95 POSES LITTLE THREAT TO THE ISLANDS. NEVERTHELESS,
IT’S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS NEW
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY, WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND
HAVING YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN PREPARED AND READY. ADDITIONALLY, PLEASE STAY
ACTIVELY VIGILANT AND MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE CLOSELY.
AT 8 PM ECT OR 0000 UTC, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 2174 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THE DISTURBANCE HAS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS AND A 90 PERCENT CHANCE IN SEVEN DAYS.
BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL TRACKS, THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT THE NEAREST POINT TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT COULD BE A HURRICANE. MOST OF THE
HAZARDOUS WINDS COULD STAY CLEAR OF THE ISLANDS BUT IMPACT ON THE ISLANDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. THINGS WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH TIME.
PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA; HOWEVER, AN ALERT IS LIKELY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 AND ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED.
FORECASTER DALE DESTIN
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not a Meteorological Office. Information shared by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources contracted by the Department. This information should be used as a guide for anyone who has an interest in local weather conditions. By no means can DDM or the Government of the Virgin Islands be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision, which may result in the loss of finances, property or life
