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DISTURBANCE 1 MAY BECOME A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TODAY OR TOMORROW

DISTURBANCE 1 MAY BECOME A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TODAY OR TOMORROW

October 12, 20051851Views

At 8:00AM, Invest 90L (Disturbance 1) was located 17.0N, 57.2W
or approximately 275 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds
are 35 mph with 45 mph gusts with a chance of development within 48 hours now at 70%.
Disturbance 1 continues to slowly become organized There are no changes to the
track forecast. The system will pass through the northern Leeward Islands later
today. It will move through the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.
Though the system could become a tropical depression or tropical storm sometime
today or tomorrow, most of the model guidance indicates that development will
occur Tuesday or Wednesday.

 Expected Impacts Onshore

The Virgin Islands: The main impact will be rainfall. Heavy rain is expected to
produce minor flooding over portions of the Virgin Islands. The system is expected to affect the
British Virgin Islands in the next 36-48 hours. A Flash Flood Watch maybe
issued around Monday afternoon.

 A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are
favorable for heavy rain across the watch area which may lead to flooding. If
you are in the watch area, check your preparedness requirements. Be prepared in
the event a flash flood watch is upgraded to a Flash Flood Warning and you need
to evacuate to safety.

People in the watch area should continue to be
aware of the possibility for heavy rainfall. Avoid flood prone areas and stay
away from ghuts….be careful when approaching flooded roadways. The heavy rain
could also cause mudslides in areas of steep terrain.

Southeast Bahamas/Turks and Caicos: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
middle to latter part of next week if the system tracks close enough to the
region

 Expected Impacts Offshore

Winds in the lower limits of tropical storm force are possible in
the northeastern Caribbean on Monday. Tropical storm force winds are possible
for the waters near the southeastern Bahamas in the middle to latter part of
next week.

 Residents are encouraged to monitor the progress of Disturbance 1
as moves further east. The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) will
continue to monitor the system and provide updates accordingly. Please visit
the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe for updates.