DISTURBANCE 23 MOVING WNW ;TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR VI

Current
Location: 14.5N/55.8W

Geographic
Reference: 270 miles east-northeast of Barbados

Movement: West-northwest
at 15 mph

Max Winds: 30
to 35 mph

Organizational
Trend: Increasing

Forecast
Track Confidence: Average

Chances of
Development to a Tropical Storm Within 48 hours: 90%

Chances of
Development to a Tropical Storm Beyond 48 hours: 99%

Changes to
Our Previous Forecast

There are
no significant changes from our previous forecast.

Forecast

Tropical
Disturbance 23 will continue moving to the west-northwest over the next few
days. A reconnaissance
aircraft is approaching the system and will determine where any center is
located and whether or not it is a tropical wave, depression, or a storm. In
the meantime Forecasters think it will pass over the Lesser
Antilles on Tuesday morning, probably near Dominica or Guadeloupe. Once in
the Caribbean Sea it will move in the general direction of Puerto Rico or
Hispaniola, moving over the area Wednesday afternoon. The system should be
southeast of the Turks and Caicos by Thursday afternoon. Beyond Thursday,
most indications are it will turn northward, somewhere in the vicinity of the
Bahamas. If the system stays weaker than expected, it could end up tracking a
little south of the current forecast. Forecasters have about average
confidence in the track over the next several days.

Disturbance
23 appears to have become a little better organized overnight. It could still
have more than one circulation center but its appearance on satellite imagery
is improving. The improving low-level organization may become more apparent
when visible imagery becomes available later this morning. If not, another
reconnaissance plane will investigate the area this afternoon. Forecasters
think there is a good chance it will become a depression or tropical storm
sometime today or tomorrow. Once in the eastern Caribbean Sea tomorrow
afternoon and Wednesday, it could become a hurricane. The intensity forecast
confidence remains below average.

Expected
Impacts on Land

Lesser
Antilles: A few heavy thunderstorms have already moved through the area,
with additional squalls possible beginning this morning. 2-4 inches of rain
is possible with these storms as well as gusty winds. Additional rain is
expected as the squalls from the disturbance move through later today and
into tomorrow. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches are possible through tomorrow
night. Islands near the center on tomorrow morning could experience winds to
tropical storm force.

U.S./British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
disturbance will arrive in the area today. 2-4 inches of rain is possible
with these storms as well as gusty winds. The outermost squalls will move in
tomorrow. Rainfall up to 5-10 inches will be possible, with much higher
amounts possible in the higher elevations of Puerto Rico. Tropical storm or
hurricane conditions could impact the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Dominican
Republic (Santo Domingo area): Squalls may reach the area by Wednesday
morning. Rainfall up to 3-5 inches will be possible from Wednesday through
Thursday.

Turks and
Caicos: Squalls should reach the islands by Thursday afternoon. Rainfall
totals of 2-4 inches will be possible.

Expected
Impacts Offshore

Eastern
Caribbean Sea: A few heavy showers and thunderstorms will move into the
eastern Caribbean today, with deteriorating conditions expected tonight and
tomorrow as the system approaches. By Thursday night, the last squalls will
exit the Caribbean waters near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Interests
in the Virgin Islands should continue monitor the progress of this system for
any sudden changes as it may pose a threat to the territory. The DDM is also encouraging
persons to make the necessary preparations if they have not already done so.
Waiting until formal watches and warnings to be issued can be too late for
some individuals depending on where the system develops. The 2011 hurricane
season is projected to be very active. Please visit the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe to the DDM’s
notification link.

Disclaimer:The Department of Disaster
Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information
disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional
sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This
information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local
weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held
accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal
evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of
finances, property or life.