Current Position: 9.80N and
Geographic Reference: 940 miles
east-southeast of Barbados
near 25 mph
Max. Wind: 35 mph
Organizational Trend: Increasing
Chance of Development Within 48
hours: 80 percent
Forecast Confidence: Average
The chance of development has
been increased from 70 percent to 80 percent.
Disturbance 15 (Invest 95L)
appears very close to developing a closed low-level circulation center. An Air
Force reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow. If the plane
finds a closed circulation, it will likely be declared a tropical storm, or
possibly a depression. If organization improves, it could be declared a
tropical storm overnight or early tomorrow. Conditions in its path do not
appear favorable for development. Its fast forward motion and some easterly
wind shear are the two factors that could prevent it from strengthening. On its
current track we expect Disturbance 15 to reach the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.
Unfavorable conditions in the Caribbean Sea could lead to some weakening. On
Thursday, this system could move across Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. By Friday,
Disturbance 15 is expected to reach the Bahamas. Beyond then there is a chance
environmental conditions could be more favorable and allow for some
development. This could make for a potential landfall threat to the
Southeastern U.S. next weekend.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Caribbean: Gusts to
tropical storm force are possible on Tuesday as the squalls move through. A
chance of sustained winds to tropical storm force cannot be ruled out with the
increasing chance of development.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Rainfall: 3 to 6
inches of rain are possible, mainly on Tuesday. These rains could cause
localized flooding and perhaps mudslides on barren hillsides.
Rainfall: 3 to 6 inches
of rain are possible on Thursday with higher totals in the mountains. Flash
flooding and mudslides are possible.
Rainfall: Up to 6
inches of rain are possible, mainly on Friday. Localized street flooding is
The Department of Disaster Management
is monitoring the situation and will provide updates accordingly. Please visit
the DDM’s website and subscribe for updates.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information inappropriately
for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the
loss of finances, property or life.