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TS CHANTAL NEARING BARBADOS

TS CHANTAL NEARING BARBADOS

July 9, 2013659Views

Current Position: 13.2N and
58.3W

Geographic Reference: 85 miles
east of Barbados

Forecasters Estimated Max. Winds: 50 mph
gusting to 70 mph

Latest NHC Estimated Max Wind and
Gusts (at 1AM CDT): 
50 mph gusting to 65 mph

Movement: West-northwest
at 26 mph

Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 (1 size
/2 intensity)

Max. Predicted Hurricane Severity
Index: 
6 (2 size /4 intensity)

Max. Predicted Radius of Tropical
Storm Force Winds: 
80 miles

Organizational Trend: Slowly
increasing

Forecast Confidence: Average

Previous Forecast

There are no significant changes.

Forecast

Chantal continues moving very
quickly to the west-northwest and is now 3-4 hours from passing about 30 miles
north of Barbados. Chantal will move through the Lesser Antilles around midday
today, then gradually slow down as it approaches Hispaniola on Wednesday. A
northwestward turn after passing over Hispaniola will take Chantal just north
of eastern Cuba on Thursday and through the Bahamas on Friday and into
Saturday. Forecasters think a very slow moving Chantal could turn toward
Florida as the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic builds westward. Forecasters
do not want to rule out the possibility that Chantal is driven across Florida
and enters the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Forecasters confidence
in the first 5 days of the forecast track is about average.

Conditions appear favorable for at least some strengthening, and
Chantal could be a 70 mph tropical storm by the time it reaches Hispaniola.
Hurricane strength is not expected but it remains a possibility. A track across
the rugged terrain of Hispaniola will likely result in some weakening, but forecasters
think Chantal will still be a tropical storm as it moves through the Bahamas. Forecasters
confidence in the intensity forecast is good through the first 48 hours, with
less confidence in the following days of the forecast.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Eastern Caribbean: Sustained
tropical storm force winds are expected later today.

Expected Impacts Onshore

Lesser Antilles

Rainfall: About 3 to
5 inches of rain are expected today and into early tomorrow. Isolated totals
could be as high as 7 inches. These rains could cause localized flooding and
mudslides on barren hillsides.

Wind: Winds to
tropical storm force are expected today.

Storm Surge: Tides up
to 2 feet above normal are possible today.

Dominican Republic

Rainfall: 3 to 6
inches of rain are possible tomorrow with totals to 12 inches in the mountains.
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible.

Wind: Winds to
tropical storm force are possible along the southern coast.

Storm Surge: Tides 2-3
feet above normal are possible within 35 miles to the right of where the center
moves ashore.

Bahamas

Rainfall: 6-10
inches of rain could fall, mainly from Friday through Saturday. Street flooding
is possible.

Wind: Winds up
to tropical storm force are possible Friday and Saturday.

Storm Surge: Beaches
with onshore flow could see tides 1-2 feet above normal.

 

Residents are urged to monitor
the system as it has not passed the territory and due to the uncertainty of its
path. The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) will continue to monitor the
situation and provide updates accordingly. Please visit the DDM’s website and
subscribe for updates.

 

Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information inappropriately
for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the
loss of finances, property or life.